Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.051631 0.058677 0.066557 0.076063 0.087276 0.100148 0.116139
2026-01-11 0.042501 0.051599 0.062636 0.077167 0.096018 0.119966 0.153204
2026-01-18 0.035688 0.045844 0.059072 0.077898 0.104566 0.141878 0.199688
2026-01-25 0.029665 0.040019 0.054367 0.076274 0.109940 0.161605 0.250905
2026-02-01 0.024510 0.034494 0.049104 0.072861 0.112210 0.178132 0.305035
2026-02-08 0.021371 0.031346 0.046748 0.073438 0.121210 0.209094 0.399763
2026-02-15 0.018817 0.028667 0.044653 0.074078 0.130873 0.245637 0.527796
2026-02-22 0.016875 0.026648 0.043286 0.075768 0.143387 0.293942 0.717673
2026-03-01 0.015184 0.024780 0.041850 0.077081 0.155975 0.349467 0.976643
2026-03-08 0.013433 0.022537 0.039350 0.075760 0.162733 0.395710 1.259983
2026-03-15 0.011554 0.019795 0.035457 0.070661 0.159152 0.413769 1.472487
2026-03-22 0.010543 0.018529 0.034246 0.071241 0.170423 0.483538 2.003519
2026-03-29 0.009769 0.017631 0.033682 0.073378 0.187569 0.587889 2.926309
2026-04-05 0.008975 0.016581 0.032626 0.074112 0.201466 0.694840 4.172019
2026-04-12 0.008258 0.015591 0.031536 0.074541 0.215104 0.816720 5.993650
2026-04-19 0.007493 0.014398 0.029793 0.072788 0.220983 0.912841 8.078859
2026-04-26 0.006732 0.013118 0.027647 0.069397 0.219764 0.975575 10.225248
2026-05-03 0.006270 0.012440 0.026845 0.069803 0.233772 1.144995 15.352073
2026-05-10 0.005862 0.011833 0.026121 0.070290 0.248853 1.348396 23.767348
2026-05-17 0.005541 0.011384 0.025730 0.071779 0.269713 1.634920 40.173291
2026-05-24 0.005236 0.010935 0.025266 0.072927 0.290236 1.968604 69.901352
2026-05-31 0.004867 0.010291 0.024177 0.071627 0.298114 2.213612 109.006064
2026-06-07 0.004409 0.009384 0.022240 0.066813 0.284875 2.223708 132.958619